Ray Dalio unveils an ETF based on his ‘All Weather’ strategy — typically just 30% stocks — as recession talk grows louder. Is now the time to follow in the legendary investor's footsteps?

Decoding the All Weather strategy

Created in 1996, Dalio’s All Weather portfolio isn’t flashy; it’s methodical and built for resilience. The approach hinges on risk management through asset diversification designed to perform well in any economic environment – boom, bust, inflation, or deflation. Specifically, Dalio suggests an allocation that looks something like this:

• 30% stocks: Primarily for growth, but deliberately kept low to limit volatility.
• 40% long-term bonds and 15% intermediate bonds: Providing stability and cushioning against deflation or economic downturns.
• 7.5% gold: An inflation hedge and safe haven during crises.
• 7.5% commodities: Diversification to guard against inflationary spikes.

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A peek inside ALLW

The newly launched ALLW ETF appears to follow Dalio’s allocation strategy.

As of the end of March 2025, less than 30% its assets are in equities, namely the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG), the SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF (SPEM) and the SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC).

The remainder splits among treasury bonds of varying maturities, gold exposure, and diversified commodity positions – echoing Dalio’s classic defensive stance.

In essence, the ALLW ETF is a turnkey version of Dalio’s approach, accessible with just a few clicks rather than requiring individual investors to manage complex allocations manually.

Is it right for you?

The portfolio has delivered average annual returns of 4.88% in the last decade, compared to around 10% for the S&P 500, according to PortfoliosLab, proving that playing it safe is costly during periods that see stock market exuberance.

Dalio’s approach does have an impressive track record during crises. In his Of Dollars and Data blog, Nick Maggiulli noted the All Weather Portfolio "has more dependable real returns and less severe drawdowns than other traditional portfolios." He found it declined less than the balanced 60/40 (U.S. Stock/Bond) portfolio during the Great Financial Crisis and COVID crash. It also outperformed the S&P 500 and the 60/40 portfolio in a high inflation environment (1970s) and a low growth environment (2000s).

It’s not a universal panacea. Investors should carefully weigh the pros and cons and speak to a financial adviser to decide whether it's right for them. Let’s consider the advantages first:

Risk management

Maggiulli emphasizes the strategy's strength, noting it provides peace of mind during market crashes. Its steady returns and lower volatility make it particularly attractive for investors nearing retirement or those with low risk tolerance.

Stress-free investing

The ETF simplifies investing, offering a "set-it-and-forget-it" strategy ideal for investors overwhelmed by managing multiple investments.

Now the risks.

Returns during bull markets

With only around 30% or lower of equity exposure, the All Weather portfolio inevitably lags during strong market rallies. Younger investors with longer investment horizons might find this conservative approach limiting.

Bond and inflation risk

Given current interest rate volatility and inflation uncertainties, heavy exposure to long-term bonds could pose risks if rates rise faster or higher than anticipated.

Lack of personalization

Investing in an ETF removes flexibility for tailored investment decisions. Investors with specific financial goals or ethical investing preferences might find this limiting.

Cost

Investors should consider that the All Weather ETF has an expense ratio of 0.85%, which is much higher than the average fee for funds. The three equity index funds it contains all have much lower expense ratios.

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Should you follow Dalio’s lead?

Dalio’s timing certainly raises eyebrows. With an uncertain economy and recession fears intensifying, his conservative, defensive stance might appeal broadly. Maggiulli captures this sentiment succinctly: “This was the key idea for Dalio and Bridgewater – find something that works no matter what the future holds."

For cautious investors, especially those nearing retirement, embracing Dalio’s strategy through ALLW could be an intelligent move, offering stability when markets seem unpredictable. However, younger, more aggressive investors may prefer strategies emphasizing growth, even at higher risk.

Ultimately, the decision to follow Dalio now hinges on your risk tolerance, time horizon, and faith in the market's immediate future. But one thing’s undeniable: as storm clouds gather over the economic landscape, Dalio’s All Weather ETF may provide a safe harbor in a storm, proving once again why investors worldwide listen closely when he speaks.